Tariffs and trade investigations are shaking the foundations of US freight, threatening cost hikes, supply chain disruption, and legal exposure for trucking companies and their customers.
Editor's note: US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on heavy truck imports on 25 September 2025 via social media. According to that announcement, the new customs duty will take effect from 1 October 2025.
Key takeaways
- Tariffs on US imports of trucks could have a considerable impact on supply chains.
- Companies around the world have voiced concerns about the possible outcomes of the Section 232 investigation.
- Fewer trucks and ageing fleets may increase transportation costs for companies reliant on trucking.
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Trucks transported 11.6 billion tonnes of goods across the US in 2024, accounting for about 73% of all US freight moved by weight. The trucking sector is not only a logistical backbone, but also a major employer, supporting 8.4 million jobs across the US.
Yet this vital industry now faces mounting pressure from trade policy developments, particularly the Section 232 investigation into medium and heavy-duty truck imports.
Launched by the US Department of Commerce on 22 April 2025, the investigation aims to determine whether such imports threaten national security. The probe forms part of President Donald Trump’s broader “America First Trade Policy,” which aims to boost domestic investment, protect national security, and reduce reliance on foreign goods. In 2024, the US imported almost US$21 billion worth of medium and heavy-duty trucks, with Mexico providing the majority (US$15.4 billion), followed by Canada, Japan, and Germany.
For transport companies, the investigation signals potential disruption and heightened legal exposure, with implications extending far beyond truck manufacturers to every sector that relies on freight mobility.
Lexology PRO has also examined the impact of US tariffs on semiconductor manufacturers and EU pharmaceutical companies.
Where do trucking companies stand currently?
Even before the results of the Section 232 investigation are published and sector-specific tariffs introduced, the trucking industry has been grappling with the effects of existing tariffs.
Duties on steel and aluminium have driven up production costs of US-made trucks. Some estimates suggest truck prices have risen by 9% as a result, with production levels in the US projected to decline in 2025 and 2026.
This has knock-on effects for the broader freight ecosystem. Fewer domestically produced trucks at greater expense mean that trucking companies face rising costs for fleet expansion and maintenance. These costs are likely to be passed on to customers, resulting in higher prices for transporting goods across the country.
Industry pushback to Section 232 investigation
The Section 232 investigation, opened under the Trade Expansion Act 1962, joins a long list of other sectors that have been come under scrutiny from the Trump administration, including copper, timber and lumber, and wind turbines, among others.
The investigation has drawn substantial criticism from a wide range of stakeholders, both domestically and internationally.
The American Trucking Association, for example, urged the Commerce Department not to impose tariffs on heavy-duty trucks or truck parts, instead recommending that “domestic providers of heavy-duty trucks receive relief from other tariffs currently in place.” The Truckload Carriers Association echoed these concerns, warning that “if tariffs are imposed on truck parts or other essential components, the added financial burden will further diminish profitability, and the costs could be passed on to American consumers.”
The US Chamber of Commerce similarly raised concerns about the potential negative impact that broad-based tariffs would have on the trucking sector. The lobbying group also noted that the trucking industry relies heavily on imports from countries like Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland – none of which pose a national security threat, according to the group.
International voices have also weighed in. Japan’s Automobile Manufacturers Association cautioned that new tariffs would add costs and slow momentum in US truck manufacturing. The German Association of the Automotive Industry argued that tariff increases could spur inflation and produce unintended consequences, advocating instead for dismantling tariffs and other trade barriers. Mexico’s National Association of Buses, Trucks and Tractor Trailer Manufacturers emphasised the risk to North American supply chain integration. According to the association, tariffs on trucks would “severely disrupt the high level of integration, regulatory alignment, and supply chain reliability that define the North American medium and heavy-duty truck industry.”
Emerging risks for trucking companies
If tariffs are imposed as a result of the Section 232 investigation, trucks made outside the US will become more expensive for US companies to import. Meanwhile, US trucking companies could face short-term production bottlenecks as they scramble to source domestic alternatives to foreign-made parts, which could also face a tariff rate as a result of the investigation.
These scenarios could lead to fewer trucks on the road, higher maintenance costs, ageing fleets and increased freight prices. For companies that rely on trucks to ship their goods around the US, the impact could be significant. Operational costs may rise, and supply chain reliability could falter.
Adding to the uncertainty is a pending US Supreme Court case, expected to be heard in November, which will determine whether the Trump administration’s tariffs are legal. The court has agreed to review the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s ruling that deemed the president’s “reciprocal” tariffs and tariffs related to fentanyl trafficking illegal.
If the US Supreme Court sets aside these two categories of tariffs, any tariffs imposed as a result of Section 232 investigations would still stand, such as copper. In turn, this avenue could become more central to US trade enforcement.
What’s next?
The trucking industry, which generated US$906 billion in freight revenue in 2024, is at a critical juncture. The outcome of the Section 232 investigation, expected in December 2025, will be closely watched, not only by truck manufacturers and importers but by every business that depends on freight mobility.
Looking ahead, bilateral trade deals currently under negotiation may offer some relief. Exemptions for truck imports could be carved out, and new frameworks may evolve into concrete agreements. For instance, only the most favoured nation tariff rate applies to EU aircrafts and aircraft parts as well as pharmaceuticals thanks to the US-EU trade deal. However, with more Section 232 investigations likely on the horizon, trucking companies must prepare for continued volatility.
In-house legal and compliance teams should monitor developments closely and assess exposure to tariff-related risks. The stakes are high – not just for the trucking sector, but for the entire US supply chain.
Updated with editor's note on the 25% tariff on heavy duty truck imports.